The second leg of the 2025/26 Champions League third qualifying round between Benfica (Portugal) and Nice (France) will take place on August 12 at the Estádio da Luz in Lisbon. The first match ended 2-0 in favor of Benfica. Benfica vs. Nice: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Benfica
In the first match, Bruno Lage's side outplayed their opponents with a 2-0 scoreline. As a result, Benfica ended their three-match winless streak in the Champions League (1 draw, 2 losses). Additionally, the team achieved a victory with a margin of more than one goal for only the second time in their last 11 matches in this European competition. To advance to the next round, the Portuguese team only needs to avoid losing by more than one goal in regular time. Notably, the club has participated in the main draw of the Champions League for the past four seasons.
- The team has not won in regular time in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the Champions League (3 draws, 6 losses).
- At least four goals have been scored in 5 of their last 7 home games in this European competition.
- The Portuguese side has conceded in regular time in 10 of their last 12 home matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Benfica (4-3-3)
Anatoliy Trubin – Antonio Silva, Samuel Dall, Nicolas Otamendi, Amar Dedic – Richard Rios, Fredrik Aursnes, Enzo Barrenechea – Andreas Schjelderup, Evangelos Pavlidis, Franjo Ivanovic.
Defender Alexander Bah, midfielder Manu Silva, and forwards Kerem Akturkoglu and Bruma will miss the game due to injuries.
Nice
The French side lost the first match at home, extending their winless streak in European competitions to 11 matches (5 draws, 6 losses). Moreover, Nice failed to score for only the third time in their last 20 European matches. Previously, the team participated in the Champions League only once, in the 2017/18 season, where they lost in the final qualifying round to Napoli (0-2, 0-2). To advance to the next round, the French team needs to win by at least three goals in regular time. If Nice wins by two goals, extra time will be played.
- The club has not won in regular time in their last five away matches in European competitions (1 draw, 4 losses).
- The team has scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 7 of their last 9 away games in European competitions.
- The French side has conceded in the first half in 4 of their last 5 away matches in European club tournaments.
Predicted lineup for Nice (3-4-3)
Yehvann Diouf – Djouma Ba, Dante, Antoine Mendy – Melvin Bard, Morgan Sanson, Hicham Boudaoui, Jonathan Clauss – Terem Moffi, Badredine Bouanani, Isak Jansson.
Defenders Mohamed Abdelmonem, Youssouf Ndayishimiye, Moise Lompungu, and Dante, as well as midfielders Morgan Sanson and Tanguy Ndombele, are unavailable due to injuries.
Referee
Marco Guida (Italy)
Matches – 9 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 31;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.4;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 22%.
Match Prediction: Benfica vs. Nice
The Portuguese side has a solid advantage from the first leg and, in my opinion, will not take risks in the return match, opting for a cautious approach. Furthermore, Benfica has not been performing well at home recently, achieving only one victory in their last ten home matches in the Champions League. During this period, they have lost to opponents like Feyenoord, Salzburg, and Real Sociedad, and failed to defeat Bologna and Monaco.
Nice does not have many chances to overturn the deficit and advance, but they are capable of putting up a respectable performance away from home. Notably, in their last 12 away matches in European competitions, the French side has only lost by more than one goal on one occasion.
I expect Franck Haise's team to perform better than in the home leg, and my prediction: Nice with a handicap (+1.5)
